Connected TVs Making Steady Gains, 3DTVs Less So29 Jun, 2011 By: Chris Tribbey, Erik Gruenwedel
Report says consumer adoption of 3DTV will slow this year
The shroud of indifference in which retailers find themselves as they try to incite consumer interest in 3DTV isn’t expected to lift much this year, while consumer interest in connected TVs continues to thrive, according to a new report.
Sales of 3DTVs are projected to actually decline in 2011 as issues surrounding a universal standard, eyewear, dearth of content and price resolve themselves, according SNL Kagan.
Principal 3DTV drivers include live sports and ongoing (though waning) interest in theatrical 3D movies.
3DTV households should top 1.8 million by the end of the year, or 2% of the overall market. The net gain of 1.4 million households is based on an estimated retail sellthrough rate of 75% (up from 35% in 2010) as retail prices drop about 6% to $1,623 per unit. (The retail sellthrough rate compares the amount of inventory a retailer receives from a manufacturer or supplier against what actually is sold to the consumer.)
Kagan said 3DTV household penetration would rise from 5% at the end of 2012 to 21% by 2015 as the SRP falls 21% to $1,195 from $1,511.
“However, this does not include 3D accessories such as Blu-ray Disc players and additional 3D glasses, which cost about $100 depending on the manufacturer,” wrote senior analyst Robin Flynn.
Meanwhile, consumer interest in 3D theatrical movies continues to cool, as underscored by the June 24 opening weekend results for Disney/Pixar’s Cars 2, which generated just 40% of its box office in 3D (including 5% from Imax). By comparison, DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon generated 57% of opening box office in 3D with no Imax contribution.
Previous major 3D theatrical release Green Lantern fared only slightly better, generating 45% of its opening box office revenue in non-Imax 3D.
“We continue to wonder how long before the 3D fatigue issues that are occurring domestically start to spill over into international markets,” wrote BTIG Research analyst Richard Greenfield in a June 27 post.
On the other hand, connected TVs and Blu-ray Disc players appear to be gaining traction — due in part to wider inclusion of wireless connectivity, Web browsing and Google TV, according to Kagan.
The Charlottesville, Va.-based research firm estimates connectable TV homes (excluding connected Blu-ray players and over-the-top devices) will grow to 14% of total U.S. TV households this year. This represents an increase of 8.4 million new Web-enabled TV households estimated this year from 7.5 million, or 6% of total U.S. TV households, at the end of 2010.
“We estimate the percentage of total TV households with at least one connected TV set or Blu-ray player will grow from 23% to 51%, as the majority of new HD and 3DTV sets and Blu-ray players will have some sort of online connectivity,” Flynn wrote.