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Thomas K. Arnold

October 07, 2009
Blu Skies for 3D

I trust you all saw the report from the research firm GigaOM that predicts enormous growth for the home 3D market, with projections that by 2013 some 46 million homes will have 3D HDTVs. What makes this projection even more startling is the fact that it's being issued at a time when 3D for the home is still in the development stages. Sony is preparing to release its first 3D Bravia TV sometime next year, along with a 3D option for all of its PlayStation 3 games. And Panasonic has announced plans to ship a 50-inch 3D HDTV with a plasma screen sometime in 2010, as well.

In a proverbial nutshell, the study bases its optimistic projections on the overwhelming success of 3D in movie theaters. The powers that be in our home entertainment industry have taken notice as well and, more and more, seem hell-bent on recreating in the home the first-class 3D experience that moviegoers get in theaters. That means no more red-and-blue anaglyph glasses; instead, viewers will have to don high-end polarized glasses and, by the way, stock up on a new TV as well. And the vehicle to bring 3D movies into the home: Blu-ray Disc. Indeed, there are some who believe 3D may be the elusive "killer app" that makes Blu-ray a must-have commodity--a killer app for which some of the best minds in our industry have been searching for years.

Here's how the 3D experience works in theaters, courtesy of Wikipedia: "The projector alternately projects the right-eye frame and left-eye frame 144 times per second, and circularly polarizes these frames, clockwise for the right eye and counterclockwise for the left eye. A push-pull electro-optical modulator called a ZScreen is placed immediately in front of the projector lens to switch polarization. The audience wears recyclable circularly polarized glasses to make sure each eye sees only its own picture...The result is a 3D picture that seems to extend behind and in front of the screen itself."

I've experienced this myself, several times, most recently with Final Destination--and let me tell you, I, for one, am hooked. But before we get all worked up about 3D in the home, there's an awful lot of work to be done, not just on the CE end but also on the studio end, making Blu-ray Discs ready for the third dimension. But from what I am hearing, everyone is working at breakneck speed to achieve this, and I am fully convinced that by the time the first 3D HDTVs arrive in stores there will be 3D Blu-ray Discs to play on them.

If there aren't, our industry is going to be in bigger trouble than anyone could have thought.

October 01, 2009
Roman Polanski: The Movie?

A controversial biopic on director Roman Polanski is being released on DVD to retail stores around the country on Oct. 20. 

Damian Chapa, who directed, wrote and stars in Polanski Unauthorized ($25), says the film was initially distributed only to Wal-Mart and various Web sites through Terra Entertainment. But recently, Chapa said, he decided to expand distribution to other retailers through Victory Multimedia—just before the controversy hit over Polanski’s arrest on a 32-year-old sex charge.

“It was coincidental,” says Chapa, whose Amadeus Pictures produced the film in early 2008 and gave it a limited theatrical release.

The film casts a cynical eye on Polanski and explores in detail his life, from his early years in war-torn Poland to the 1969 murder of his wife, Sharon Tate, and his exile from the United States in 1977 after he pled guilty to having sex with a 13-year-old girl.

Click here for the full story.
 
 

 


 


 

September 25, 2009
Yea, Toshiba!

Another hearty kudos to Toshiba for its announcement this week that its upcoming Qosmio X500 line of laptops will come with built-in Blu-ray Disc drives as standard equipment. The laptops will start arriving in stores Oc. 22 (to read the complete story, click here).

As I mentioned in a previous blog posting, the computer industry is moving ridiculously slow in incorporating Blu-ray Disc drives into its PCs, mostly because of the additional expense. It wasn't this way with DVD, but then again computer prices have plummeted over the last decade and new PCs and even laptops can be had for a fraction of what they used to cost.

But still, why not offer a premium line of laptops and settops with a Blu-ray Disc drive--or at least offer Blu-ray Disc drives as an upgrade, the way car makers do with seat warmers and DVD players? I know, consumers can always add a Blu-ray Disc drive later, but come on--it's just not the same.

I'm more convinced that Blu-ray Disc is going to make it, and make it, big. Just look at last week's top home video seller, 20th Century Fox's X-Men Origins: Wolverine, the first of the year's big tentpoles to hit video. An impressive 27% of sales came from the Blu-ray Disc version, or 810,000 of the first-week sales tally of 3 million units.

The computer industry could really help lift Blu-ray Disc at a time the format needs it the most. And, conversely, Blu-ray, once established, could lift computer sales, just as DVD drives ultimately helped lift PC sales. Eventually there came a time when computer owners demanded DVD drives, and quite often bought new computers just to get one.

It's going to be the same with Blu-ray disc drives--but computer manufacturers need to take the first step.

September 22, 2009
Deja Vu

Are we going back in time or what? I read our story about Blockbuster chief Jim Keyes' conference call with Pali Capital (to see it, click here) and immediately rolled my eyes and let out a chuckle. Apparently Blockbuster isn't putting its own DVDs into the 2,500 Blockbuster Express kiosks the chain plans on rolling out through the end of the year. Instead, Blockbuster's partner in the venture, NCR Corp., is in charge of feeding, and among the sources for its dollar-a-day rental DVDs is — surprise, surprise — Wal-Mart.

That took me back to 2000 and 2001, in the early days of DVD, when studios were once again going through one of their period bouts of consolidating distribution. Retailers and even other distributors shut out by studios such as Universal limiting distribution to Ingram and VPD would simply turn around and buy product, on street date, from the local Wal-Mart.

It was something they couldn't do in the days of high-priced rental cassettes, when the mass merchants weren't even in the home video business, for all practical purposes. In those days, you will recall, videocassettes were released with list prices of up to $100, with the express purpose of limiting sales to video dealers who would turn around and rent them to consumers. No one thought consumers would actually want to own hit movies released on video, except for a smattering of family and children's features that would likely be viewed repeatedly. Six months down the pike, the price would come down, primarily to give retailers a chance to replace their worn-out rental cassettes. Marketing these no-longer-fresh theatricals to consumers was merely an afterthought.

But DVD changed the equation, and studio attempts to consolidate distribution — a ploy to both feed the burgeoning sellthrough market by limiting rental availability and at the same time get a share of the rental action, since the retailers and distributors who made the cut had to agree to revenue-sharing arrangements — were consistently dinged by the Wal-Mart factor. Indeed, independent rental dealers as well as smaller distributors like Flash unabashedly stated they would not be stymied by the studio clampdown and simply buy their DVDs at Wal-Mart, Costco and other mass merchants who were doing cartwheels just to tap into the booming DVD sellthrough business.

Nearly 10 years later, the same thing is happening, although now Blockbuster has joined the disgruntled indies in shopping at Wal-Mart. Here's a novel concept for the studios to entertain: Why not just ship everything to Wal-Mart and let Wal-Mart be the country's sole distribution source for DVD? Wal-Mart is open early and even has a good number of 24-hour locations. The chain is fairly ubiquitous; according to Snopes.com, 90% of all Americans live within 15 miles of a Wal-Mart store. And the prices Wal-Mart charges for new DVD releases tends to be lower than some distributors charge.

Hey, I think we're on to something ...

September 17, 2009
Will There Be a Fifth Quarter?

Remember the "fifth quarter" studio executives used to salivate back in the early years of this millennium? Year after year, strong DVD player sales at Christmas led to huge DVD sales in January, as the thousands of new DVD households flocked to stores to find something to feed their hungry little machines.

With Blu-ray Disc player prices now at truly affordable levels — even the respectable Panasonic DMP BD-60 can be had for just $179 on Amazon — studio executives are trying to squeeze whatever optimism they can out of this shattered economy and DVD sales slump. Everyone in our industry, it seems, is searching for even a modicum of light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-year, and Blu-ray Disc player sales could be just the spark our industry needs if there's a last-minute rush by consumers to pick one up and put it under the tree.

It is doubtful we are going to see anything like we did in the 2002 or 2003 holiday seasons, when DVD player sales went through the proverbial roof. But there are signs player sales could be stronger than anyone right now is thinking. I am now at the point where I can't count the number of people I know, from all walks of life, who have bought a Blu-ray Disc player for one of two reasons: 1) their DVD player is shot and they figure they might as well replace it with a Blu-ray Disc player, "because that's where everyone seems to be going these days," in the words of a car mechanic I know; and 2) they just bought a home theater system anchored by an HDTV and just feel buying a Blu-ray Disc player is a no-brainer, either because they've been told by their home theater installer or (and this is the reason I'm hoping is the zinger) because they are smart enough to figure out that the only realistic way to get true high-definition is from Blu-ray Disc.

I wonder if studios that are holding back hot tentpoles until December have this in the back of their minds. Sure, they're reacting to lingering consumer purse-tightening and purchase delays until the last minute. But they're also playing right into the hands of the "fifth quarter" concept. Wait until week two or three of December to release a hot title and you not onlyi increase the odds of your title being picked up on DVD as a last-minute impulse buy, but you also position yourself to be right there the moment someone walks in to buy a Blu-ray Disc player as a gift, making it a fair bet the giver will pick up a Blu-ray Disc of that same title as a stocking stuffer to go along with the Blu-ray Disc player. You're also going to be fresh enough once Christmas passes and new Blu-ray Disc owners head to the stores for more discs.

It's sure shaping up to be an interesting fourth quarter.
 

Insights from the "voice of the home entertainment industry." Thomas K. Arnold gives the inside scoop on entertainment news, DVD, Blu-ray releases, and what's happening at the key studios and retailers.