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Analyst Predicts 13.8M ‘Monsters vs. Aliens’ Unit Shipments

18 Mar, 2009 By: Erik Gruenwedel

Monsters vs. Aliens

DreamWorks Animation’s touted 3-D feature film Monsters vs. Aliens doesn’t bow theatrically until March 27, but Pali Capital analyst Richard Greenfield already estimates that the title will ship 13.8 million DVD/Blu-ray Disc units worldwide later this year — the lowest number of shipments for a budding franchise release.

Greenfield, who believes Monsters will generate $483 million in global box office, including $297 million internationally, said the packaged media tally is two million units below projections for Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, which streets April 3, and 4.2 million units behind last year’s Kung Fu Panda.

The analyst said Monsters’ principle box office revenue driver will be the release in about 2,000 3-D screens, which he said charge about a $3.18 per ticket premium over traditional theaters.

“Based on recent 3-D films that have been released, we would expect attendance to skew heavily toward 3-D screens [consumers will pack the 2,000-plus 3-D screens in each market at the expense of the 5,000-plus theatrical screens],” Greenfield wrote in a note.

He expects Monsters vs. Aliens to generate $55 million its opening weekend, given the recent strong domestic movie attendance trends.

“Consumers [are] escaping from the gloomy economy,” Greenfield said.

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