Study Sees a Bright Future for Recordable DVD29 May, 2003 By: Joan Villa
Researcher Jon Peddie has seen the future, and it is brimming with recordable DVD gadgets, from Walkman-type portable players to computers, cars, appliances and home entertainment systems.
In the new 200-page “2003-2006 DVD Study,” Peddie predicts total DVD players will expand to 420 million units in 2006. To keep pace, some 1.6 billion discs will be produced, representing a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 159 percent. But the real explosion will be in recordable DVD devices, which Peddie predicts will surge 271 percent CAGR by 2006.
“The introduction of recordable DVD is already taking place, and in one or two years, worst case, recordable DVDs will replace play-only DVDs just as recordable CDs did playable CDs,” he said. “The first taste right now are video cameras that record on one-half-size DVD discs. Those are out there now and will take off.”
Portable personal players that Peddie dubs “DVD-man” will also be popular, but the fastest-growing category may well be computer-based recordable DVDs, which will replace CD-ROMs as an archival tool, Peddie said.
“It will take off faster in the computer area because computer people are used to recording and will pay a few extra dollars for that capability,” he said. “That will happen in the next year or two. Then about a year or so behind that in growth rate you'll see consumer electronics taking off as well as prices coming down as consumers become more familiar [with recordable DVDs.]”
One “wild card” to the growth predictions is whether consumers get “confused by claims and counterclaims with regard to copyright protection,” he said. In that case, consumers could avoid recordable DVDs because “they don't want to get into trouble,” he added. However, Peddie believes those fears will be forgotten within five years.
Jon Peddie Research, based in Tiburon, Calif., researched the supply-side report by interviewing drive manufacturers about the number of devices manufactured and shipped, as well as their projections of future demand. To those basic numbers, Peddie applied “our vision and view of the market,” he said. The result is higher growth-rate projections than demand-side research that samples consumers and projects how many devices will be purchased, he said.
“We're considerably more optimistic,” he said.