Report: Future Media Delivery Will Be Faster, More Mobile, More Wireless5 Dec, 2005 By: Stephanie Prange
By 2010, very high-speed broadband will be the norm, allowing movie downloads in less than three minutes.
That's just one of the predictions in a soon-to-be released position paper from Nielsen Entertainment, “Hot Trends and Future Challenges.” Nielsen sent an online poll to registrants of last week's Digital Entertainment & Media Expo conference, allowing them to respond anonymously about the future of media, entertainment and information technology.
Portability is the most potentially transformative development, the paper says, including increased use of such devices as the iPod and cell phones as mobile media centers. One respondent predicted “emergence of a new form of media tailored to the mobile audience.” In fact, a Nielsen study found 52 percent of mobile phone users will buy a new phone within the next year, with 37 percent saying extra features will figure prominently in their decisions to buy.
The paper predicts “virtually every corner of the media and entertainment industries will be fundamentally impacted by the penetration of broadband” in homes as well as through wireless systems over wide geographic areas. Broadband is already in one out of three homes, according to Nielsen.
Video game consoles could be the “Trojan horse of hardware leading to the networked home,” the paper predicts. The new consoles will come equipped with hard drives that could act as digital video recorders and have multi-user capability over broadband connections.
The paper also predicts increased support for custom content. Consumers increasingly will get content specifically suited to them at the time they want it.
High-definition adoption also is on the horizon.
The Blu-ray Disc vs. HD DVD showdown over a high-def disc standard is a concern for several study respondents, as are standards in general. Digital rights management and a lack of licensing standards are holding back innovation, respondents wrote.
“There should be one place to go to negotiate the rights to enable a new business model in the digital space,” wrote one respondent.
Another was even more direct: “Fire all the movie studio execs who forgot what the music execs went through with Napster.”