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Deloitte Predicts Hoilday Upswing

1 Oct, 2002 By: Hive News

Consumer spending will surge to 6.32 percent in the coming months, suggesting that a solid holiday season for retailers is likely, Deloitte Research Chief Economist Carl Steidtmann predicted today.

Consumers are reaching into their pockets and discovering that they have more money to spend," Steidtmann said. "Similar to last month's calculations, the numbers signal that retailers and their suppliers should be awash in sales when the holidays roll around."

The predicted increase is down slightly from August projections of 6.70 percent, according to information generated by the Deloitte Research Leading Index of Consumer Spending.

"The index is designed to predict consumer behavior four to eight months into the future and analyzes the effects of this behavior on the economy. Steidtmann draws on four indicators, including initial unemployment claims, real wage gains, taxes (personal income burden) and real home prices to fuel the index.

The Leading Index of Consumer Spending was first introduced last month to Deloitte partners and clients in New York City, initially forecasting a six percent year-over growth in consumer spending for the holiday season.

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