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Study: 1 Billion Pay-TV Households by 2018

12 Jun, 2013 By: Erik Gruenwedel

It should remain a pay-TV world in the near term despite burgeoning adoption of subscription video-on-demand services, according to a new report.

The global penetration of pay-TV households is expected to reach 1 billion by 2018, up from 772 million in 2012 and 814 million this year, according to a study from London-based Digital TV Research Ltd.

The Asia Pacific region will contribute 59% (587 million) of the global total by 2018, spearheaded by pay-TV penetration in China and India. China will have the most pay-TV subscribers, at 313 million by end 2018, followed by 158 million in India and 107 million in the United States.

The U.S. pay-TV market has remained stagnant at about 100 million homes for several years.

Other top pay-TV markets include Russia with 32.3 million households; Brazil with 30.5 million households; Japan with 27 million households; Germany with 23.1 million households; Mexico with 19 million households; South Korea with 16.9 million households; and the United Kingdom with 16.3 million households.

Notably, Holland, Denmark and Belgium rank the top three with household pay-TV penetration reaching 100%, 97% and 96%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the number of digital TV homes will increase by 667 million between 2012 and 2018 to 1.4 billion. The digital TV total will climb by 127 million in 2013 alone. Global digital penetration of TV households will climb from 54.7% at end of 2012 to 62.5% by end of 2013 and on to 92% by 2018.

Of the 667 million digital TV homes to be added between 2012 and 2018, 240 million will come from digital cable to take its total to 513 million.

Among digital TV household sub categories, free-to-air digital terrestrial TV (digital TV homes not subscribing to cable or IPTV) will add 225 million households, bringing its total to 363 million.

Pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT) will add 7 million households to total 16 million. Pay-IPTV will increase by 98 million to 167 million homes, with pay direct-to-home (DTH) up 73 million households to 251 million, and free-to-air DTH up 31 million to 143 million homes.

The universe is not static, as 141 million TV households will be added between 2012 and 2018 to bring the total to nearly 1.6 billion. Of the additions, 95 million will come from the Asia Pacific region, of which 36 million homes will be in China and an extra 35 million in India.

There were still 652 million analog TV households at the end of 2012. However, this total will fall by 104 million in 2013, with only 127 million remaining by 2018. Analog penetration of TV households will drop from 45.3% at end of 2012 to only 8% by 2018. There will be 77 million analog terrestrial homes and 49 million analog cable homes by end of 2018.


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