BDA, Adams Dispute Harris Survey on Blu-ray

By : Chris Tribbey | Posted: 25 Jun 2009
ctribbey@questex.com

The Blu-ray Disc Association is challenging the accuracy of a June 18 Harris Poll, which says that as of April, more Americans owned an HD DVD player (11%) than a Blu-ray Disc player (7%).

The BDA on June 25 said the Harris survey doesn’t mesh with actual shipping and sales numbers for Blu-ray, pointing to Adams Media Research data that puts the numbers closer to nearly 8% for Blu-ray and less than 1% for HD DVD. Calling the Harris data “grossly inaccurate,” the news release states that by the end of 2009, Blu-ray players will be in nearly 15% of American TV homes.

Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research, blamed the survey findings on consumers’ inability to identify what exactly is next to their TVs.

"Some people believe a DVD player on an HDTV is high-def. There's just so much confusion out there," Adams said. "Everybody makes mistakes" he said of the Harris survey "but we have models that show those numbers just can't be true."

“This finding suggesting that HD DVD player penetration grew from 6% to 9% in the period since the Blu-ray victory in the format war simply can't be right,” he said. “Our research on shipments and retail sales of players suggests that some 340,000 homes had an HD DVD player by the end of 2008 vs. 3.1 million homes with a dedicated Blu-ray player, and 9 million homes with either a dedicated player, a PlayStation 3 or both.”

Adams’ research has dedicated Blu-ray players in 7.2 million homes by the end of 2009, and, with the PS3 included, that number jumps to more than 17 million.

“Meanwhile, HD DVD machines are long gone from store shelves and household penetration is shrinking dramatically,” Adams said. “By way of comparison to what had been the most successful format launch in consumer electronics history, at the same point in DVD’s lifespan, four years in, at the end of 2000, DVD-enabled homes, set-tops or game machines, numbered 13.7 million.”

The BDA also noted that the HD DVD Promotions Group, just 50 days before the HD DVD format went under, announced set-top sales of fewer than 1 million units.

A representative from Harris were not available for comment at press time. However, Milton Ellis, VP and senior consultant for media for Harris Interactive Technology, said findings show that Blu-ray is facing stiff competition from Internet and broadcast TV.

“In the near future, access to high-definition movies may be a download or streaming delivery of one’s favorite movies to a home media server,” he said. “That eliminates the need for a Blu-ray player and Blu-ray Disc.”

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Commented by Mornelithe
Posted on 2009-06-25 19:42:08

Sadly, it doesn't surprise me that this has happened. Interesting that the VP didn't even refute the assertion that their numbers are false, or somehow wrong. Instead, we get to my second issue, his new claim that high-def downloads and streaming are going to be a roadblock in the coming years. Dodge a lie with another maybe? From what I know of the broadband capabilities w/in the United States, I can tell you he's lying out his ass, again. The US just isn't prepared to handle the bandwidth overload mass adoption of HD downloads in American households would incur. The other problem is that HD downloads and Streaming, are rarely uncompressed, because the file size is so monstrous... There's a reason for needing 25-50g discs...planet earth for example is 4 discs, 11 episodes, 550 total mins on Blu Ray. 4, 25 gig discs. ISP's would crumble and die under that kind of traffic. Morne

Commented by dleMore
Posted on 2009-06-26 06:16:32

“In the near future, access to high-definition movies may be a download or streaming delivery of one’s favorite movies to a home media server,” he said. “That eliminates the need for a Blu-ray player and Blu-ray Disc.” I agree with this statement.....I have a HD-player made by Toshiba that I use for playing regular Disk. The upconversion is good enough for me. I also subscribed to the HD premium movie channels on cable until Bank Of America's Mastercard went up with the interest rate on my credit card so I cut those channels and now I rent all of my Non HD movies from Netflix. I have no plans whatsoever of buying a blu-ray player(unless the Toshiba stops working) and I have no other means for playing disc.

Commented by bmz
Posted on 2009-06-26 06:58:10

Whether the poll didn't prevent confusion between HD and upconversion is not as significant as the fact that it shows Blu-ray to be dying already, with fewer wanting to buy in 2009 than 2008.

Commented by Jonathan Takiff
Posted on 2009-06-26 09:26:34

Clearly, the Harris poll was inaccurate. The operation did themselves a dis-service by putting it out, as the pronouncements now call into question their survey methodology and findings on a myriad of other issues. And Milton Ellis' "spin" didn't help matters.

Commented by Weyoun7
Posted on 2009-06-26 09:50:06

I can't verify the Harris Poll but I can state that I have two HD-DVD players and 1 Blu-Ray player. The HD-DVD plares still have the best features.

Commented by greg
Posted on 2009-06-26 10:18:04

this guy has must either owed a hd dvd player and mad that blu ray won.Because he needs to get his facts straight .

Commented by Tim Werner
Posted on 2009-06-26 13:04:15

Mr. Ellis, the senior consultant for Harris Interactive Technology, expects us to believe his other statements about Blu-ray when other parts of their survey are so blatantly wrong? Get real Mr. Ellis. The best thing you could have done would have been to admit the gross mistakes that were made in your findings with a promise to do better and more accurate work in the future. Until that happens anything you say has no credibility at all.

Commented by Bill Sheppard
Posted on 2009-06-26 13:35:38

Harris blew this one, and compounds the error with the quote at the end of this article. How many households "in the near future" does he really think will have a home media server and network infrastructure to support broadband to the primary viewing TV? Downloads will be an increasingly useful and important means for accessing movies, but where years away, if ever, from "eliminating the need for Blu-ray Disc".

Commented by Woochifer
Posted on 2009-06-26 16:33:55

That finding about HD-DVD's market share really stuck out when I was reading the Harris poll's findings. It simply makes no sense for a totally defunct format to have a higher market share than Blu-ray when 1) the actual number of HD-DVD player units shipped never surpassed Blu-ray; and 2) Blu-ray disc sales were consistently higher than HD-DVD by more than a 2-to-1 margin according to the Nielson/Videoscan data (which is a much more representative sample of the entire market than the sample used in that Harris poll). The only logical explanation for that finding is consumers confusing upconverting DVD players for the HD-DVD format itself. This glaring oversight calls the entire poll into question, especially when Harris is using the results to jump to the conclusion that downloading and streaming will "eliminate the need" for Blu-ray. It's quite a leap of logic on their part considering how fragmented the options currently are for downloading and streaming HD movies. I have not seen any mention of w

Commented by Paula
Posted on 2009-06-26 19:24:03

I hate to disapoint the downloader crowd/but disc technoegy is'nt going any where any time soon!! I Myself want no part of downloading of any kind!! And I will rersist it fore as long as I can!! I thibnk that the Blu-Ray disc format is doing quite well to spite the recession and will do even better after the economy improves. I woul rather just live with cable then accept downloading of any kind!! Physical media is here to stay!! So threre !!!!!!!