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Analyst: Blu-ray to Reach 74% Market Share by 2017

Blu-ray Disc

By Erik Gruenwedel | Posted: 04 Feb 2009

Despite a sluggish start, Blu-ray, and video-on-demand (VOD) to a lesser extent, is projected to drive and dominate home video revenue over the next 10 years, according to a new report.

Notwithstanding dour packaged-media sales reported this week by The Walt Disney Co., standard-DVD units still comprise 97.1% of the market. Indeed, Time Warner reported an $18 million increase in quarterly operating income for its filmed entertainment business, which includes Warner Bros. Home Entertainment Group.

SNL Kagan said the next-generation high-definition packaged-media format will attain nearly 60% market share in 2014 and generate $13.1 billion in revenue. The Monterey, Calif.-based research firm said BD market share would soar to 73.8%, or $15.6 billion in revenue by 2017.

Concurrently, sales of Blu-ray players are expected to grow from $255.4 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion in 2010, reaching mass-market penetration and spiking to nearly $6.9 billion by 2013.

“Blu-ray will be the driving force behind the video retail market throughout the next decade,” said Wade Holden, analyst at SNL Kagan. “The current economic climate, however, will slow the growth of this new format and likely keep it from reaching the heights that it may have [reached] in better times.”

Holden said BD’s dominance in home video could be short-lived as VOD is poised to become a major force in home entertainment after 2017. Kagan estimates that there will be 98.8 million high-speed Internet homes capable of delivering VOD in 2017, compared to 115.2 million high-definition DVD homes.

“VOD services will continue to improve in both technology and content over the next decade and begin to draw consumers away from Blu-ray and DVD by 2017,” he said.

User comments

Commented by Anonymous
Posted on 2009-02-04 19:26:13

Two problems with this report. The first, is that I've heard VOD will be the next great Internet thing for about 10 years now. Seriously. It's FINALLY starting to get there, but even with a high-speed connection most movies will take longer to download than to watch, which cripples the "on demand" part. Secondly, the fact that VOD wants to nickel-and-dime consumers to death will make it largely unattractive for anything except a challenge to the rental industry. You can rent movies today, and it's hardly killed retail DVD sales -- Blu-Ray has put a larger dent in that market than rentals. I may be willing to pay $4-6 to "rent" a movie online rather than running to the store to rent a movie, but the $1/night automated DVD kiosk three blocks from my house sure gives VOD a serious run for both convenience and cost.

Commented by Anonymous
Posted on 2009-02-07 19:58:32

What is wrong with this picture? I PREDICT THAT EVERYONE WILL WARE VIDEO GLASSES WITH EAR BUDS BY 2017!. SEE HOW EASY THAT IS. I can say this with out fact or anything to back up my thought. Who cares about making money. The studio's do not get it. I had so many customers come back to my video store the last 4 months because I offer help and a personal touch, because they dropped the VOD usage. They can not afford internet anymore. They said they were tried of the flaws, the digital boxes on screen, the freezes, audio drop outs, etc. Blu-Ray, the next, best thing to 2017? What happened to SD cards. No moving parts. Holds full movies. Easy to transport. And not one company pulling everyone's strings like Sony. Can be used everywhere. Easy to steal. Customers will go crazy as soon as hits the market after they re-build thier lives. As soon as they get jobs. Did everyone forget the Dems put us in a depression? SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!!! SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!


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